Following recent setbacks at the polls, speculation is rife within the Labour Party over the future of Gordon Brown as leader. And, as we can see from comments by Times Assistant Editor Peter Riddell in today's paper, the dynamics of informal coalitions will have a big part to play in deciding whether the Prime Minister goes or stays.
In his column, Riddell discusses whether or not there is a plot within the party to change the leader. He tells us that, despite senior colleagues expressing support for the embattled Prime Minister in public, private conversations amongst Labour MPs inevitably address the leadership question. As he put it:
"... at present, there is no certainty about the way forward - no grand conspiracy, but rather many different, sometimes overlapping, conversations."
This, as Informal Coalitions points out, is how change happens. Individual action mobilizies collective action through, in Riddell's words, "many different, sometimes overlapping, conversations". If informal conversations within the party increasingly reflect themes in favour of change - that is, if the overlaps between conversations increase - then the Prime Minister's days as party leader will be numbered. If not, or if other threads emerge that run counter to the current tide, he will survive.
It will all depend on whether or not a sufficiently powerful coalition of support builds informally within the Parliamentary Labour Party (and beyond) around the idea that the PM's removal would increase the chances of the Party's success, and their own survival(!), at the next General Election.
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